{"id":47087,"date":"2026-06-15T22:16:15","date_gmt":"2026-06-15T14:16:15","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/onetiger.com\/?p=47087"},"modified":"2026-06-15T22:16:51","modified_gmt":"2026-06-15T14:16:51","slug":"el-nino-kuat-boleh-jejaskan-pengeluaran-sawit-hingga-dua-tahun-harga-msm-dijangka-meningkat","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/onetiger.com\/bm\/el-nino-kuat-boleh-jejaskan-pengeluaran-sawit-hingga-dua-tahun-harga-msm-dijangka-meningkat\/","title":{"rendered":"El Nino Kuat Boleh Jejaskan Pengeluaran Sawit Hingga Dua Tahun, Harga MSM Dijangka Meningkat"},"content":{"rendered":"<div data-elementor-type=\"wp-post\" data-elementor-id=\"47087\" class=\"elementor elementor-47087\" data-elementor-post-type=\"post\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-8792279 e-flex e-con-boxed e-con e-parent\" data-id=\"8792279\" data-element_type=\"container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"e-con-inner\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-aec3d3d elementor-widget elementor-widget-text-editor\" data-id=\"aec3d3d\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"text-editor.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<p>Credit : Sulung Research Station<\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-ec957c4 elementor-widget elementor-widget-text-editor\" data-id=\"ec957c4\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"text-editor.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"x_MsoNormal\" align=\"center\"><div class=\"x_elementToProof\" style=\"text-align: left;\" data-olk-copy-source=\"MessageBody\"><div class=\"elementToProof\"><p style=\"font-weight: 400;\">KUALA LUMPUR \u2013 Industri perladangan sawit negara berdepan risiko pengurangan pengeluaran minyak sawit mentah (MSM) sehingga dua tahun sekiranya fenomena El Nino yang kuat berlaku pada penghujung tahun ini, menurut penganalisis pasaran.<\/p><p style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Penganalisis RHB Investment Bank Bhd, Hoe Lee Leng berkata, ramalan cuaca global menunjukkan kebarangkalian berlakunya El Nino kuat semakin meningkat dengan unjuran mencapai 88 peratus bagi tempoh November 2026 hingga Januari 2027 berdasarkan data Pentadbiran Lautan dan Atmosfera Kebangsaan Amerika Syarikat (NOAA).<\/p><p style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Menurut beliau, sekiranya fenomena tersebut berkembang kepada tahap sederhana atau kuat, sektor perladangan sawit dijangka menerima kesan ketara terutama dari segi hasil pengeluaran buah tandan segar dan minyak sawit mentah.<\/p><p style=\"font-weight: 400;\">\u201cBerdasarkan pengalaman lalu, kesan El Nino terhadap pengeluaran sawit biasanya hanya menjadi ketara apabila fenomena itu berlaku pada tahap yang kuat.<\/p><p style=\"font-weight: 400;\">\u201cJika ramalan semasa menjadi kenyataan, pengeluaran MSM berpotensi terjejas dan impaknya boleh berlarutan sehingga dua tahun bergantung kepada tahap kekeringan dan tempoh cuaca panas yang dialami,\u201d katanya dalam satu nota penyelidikan.<\/p><p style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Beliau menjelaskan bahawa NOAA telah mengesahkan kemunculan El Nino dan menjangkakan fenomena berkenaan akan terus menguat dalam beberapa bulan akan datang. Namun begitu, Biro Meteorologi Australia setakat ini masih belum mengeluarkan pengesahan rasmi mengenai perkembangan tersebut.<\/p><p style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Menurut rekod sejarah, El Nino lazimnya menyebabkan hasil tanaman sawit merosot antara dua hingga 20 peratus bergantung kepada tahap kekuatan fenomena cuaca itu.<\/p><p style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Semasa episod El Nino kuat pada 1997 hingga 1998, hasil tanaman sawit dilaporkan menyusut sekitar 17 peratus pada tahun berikutnya. Keadaan hampir sama berlaku ketika El Nino 2015 hingga 2016 apabila hasil tanaman menurun kira-kira 14 peratus pada 2016 hingga 2017.<\/p><p style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Selain menjejaskan pengeluaran, El Nino juga lazimnya memberi sokongan kepada harga minyak sawit mentah akibat kekurangan bekalan di pasaran. Data sejarah menunjukkan harga MSM meningkat secara purata sebanyak 21 peratus ketika fenomena itu berlaku dan terus meningkat sekitar 26 peratus pada tahun berikutnya.<\/p><p style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Berikutan prospek tersebut, RHB Investment Bank menaik taraf penarafan sektor perladangan kepada \u201cwajaran tinggi\u201d daripada \u201cneutral\u201d, didorong jangkaan harga komoditi yang lebih kukuh sekiranya El Nino berkembang kepada tahap lebih serius.<\/p><p style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Buat masa ini, bank pelaburan berkenaan mengekalkan unjuran harga purata MSM pada RM4,400 satu tan bagi tahun 2026 dan RM4,300 satu tan pada 2027 sementara menunggu perkembangan lanjut mengenai kekuatan sebenar fenomena cuaca global tersebut.<\/p><\/div><\/div><\/div>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Credit : Sulung Research Station KUALA LUMPUR \u2013 Industri perladangan sawit negara berdepan risiko pengurangan pengeluaran minyak sawit mentah (MSM) sehingga dua tahun sekiranya fenomena El Nino yang kuat berlaku pada penghujung tahun ini, menurut penganalisis pasaran. Penganalisis RHB Investment Bank Bhd, Hoe Lee Leng berkata, ramalan cuaca global menunjukkan kebarangkalian berlakunya El Nino kuat [&hellip;]<\/p>","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":47023,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"site-sidebar-layout":"default","site-content-layout":"","ast-site-content-layout":"","site-content-style":"default","site-sidebar-style":"default","ast-global-header-display":"","ast-banner-title-visibility":"","ast-main-header-display":"","ast-hfb-above-header-display":"","ast-hfb-below-header-display":"","ast-hfb-mobile-header-display":"","site-post-title":"","ast-breadcrumbs-content":"","ast-featured-img":"","footer-sml-layout":"","theme-transparent-header-meta":"","adv-header-id-meta":"","stick-header-meta":"","header-above-stick-meta":"","header-main-stick-meta":"","header-below-stick-meta":"","astra-migrate-meta-layouts":"default","ast-page-background-enabled":"default","ast-page-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-4)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"ast-content-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"footnotes":""},"categories":[12],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-47087","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-business"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v24.3 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>El Nino Kuat Boleh Jejaskan Pengeluaran Sawit Hingga Dua Tahun, Harga MSM Dijangka Meningkat - One Tiger Arena<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/onetiger.com\/bm\/el-nino-kuat-boleh-jejaskan-pengeluaran-sawit-hingga-dua-tahun-harga-msm-dijangka-meningkat\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"ms_MY\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"El Nino Kuat Boleh Jejaskan Pengeluaran Sawit Hingga Dua Tahun, Harga MSM Dijangka Meningkat - One Tiger Arena\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Credit : Sulung Research Station KUALA LUMPUR \u2013 Industri perladangan sawit negara berdepan risiko pengurangan pengeluaran minyak sawit mentah (MSM) sehingga dua tahun sekiranya fenomena El Nino yang kuat berlaku pada penghujung tahun ini, menurut penganalisis pasaran. 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